A Rasmussen poll conducted from October 2-4, 2023 shows a widening lead for President Trump in the 2024 Election. The poll revealed that 38% of voters are “very likely” to vote for President Trump and 15% “somewhat likely” for a total of 53%. But the shocking numbers from the poll show that President Trump is breaking barriers that traditionally thwart GOP presidential candidates: 30% of Democrats are at least “somewhat likely” to vote Trump with 19% “Very Likely”. By comparison, President Trump only received 5% of Democrat votes in 2016.
The poll revealed 55% support amongst voters age 18-39, an often difficult demographic for Republican candidates, and 54% among 40-64 year-olds. Voters 65 and up come in at 47%.
Perhaps the most shocking number is the black vote with 50% at least “somewhat likely” to vote for President Trump and only 46% not likely at all. In 2020, Biden won 87% of the black vote. Among voters labeled as “other”, Trump is up with 52% at least somewhat likely to vote for him.
The poll also asked about the effect of his choice of vice president. Specifically, whether choosing a woman, a black person, or a non-politician would make them more likely to vote Trump. A majority of all those polled (57%) said the vice president choice would not make much difference. However, voters aged 18-39 were an outlier with only 27% saying it didn’t make much difference. In that group, 24% and 23% said a woman or a black person would make them more likely to vote for President Trump, respectively.
Because this poll was conducted between October 2-4, Robert F Kennedy, Jr’s official announcement to run as an independent had not yet been made although it was being widely reported at the end of September that he would. Analysts are up in the air about whether the life-long Democrat running as an independent would have a greater impact on Biden or Trump.
This poll also doesn’t factor in the shocking attack by Hamas against Israel just a month after Joe Biden declared he would unfreeze $6 billion in Iranian funds.
