An expert in Nevada politics has warned that Kamala Harris is in “serious danger” if Republican turnout in the state’s early voting holds until election day.
Jon Ralston, a veteran journalist and founder of The Nevada Independent, wrote in a post on his website Monday that Republicans are “happy” with how things are going so far.
He explained:
Here’s your stat for the day: In the 15 rural counties, in-person voting, which is about 37 percent of the rural vote, the Rs lead the Ds by 73 percent to 11 percent. I kid you not.
In rural mail ballots, the Rs lead the Ds by a wide margin, 46-28, but those in-person numbers are startling. They account for about 8,000 of the Rs nearly 12,000-votes lead in the rurals, which are punching above their weight with 13 percent of the vote (nearly 3 points above their percentage of reg voters).
…
So what does this mean? It means Kamala Harris has to win indies by close to double digits if this turnout scenario holds. That is, unless she holds her base several points better than Trump holds his, which is possible but not necessarily likely. This is how the Dems still, think they hold on: They believe a lot of the indies, especially in Clark, are their indies.
“A few more days like this, though, and the Democratic bedwetting will reach epic proportions,” Ralston concluded his analysis.
BREAKING: Republicans are on the verge of leading the Nevada early and mail-in voting. At this point in 2020, Democrats led by over 15 points.
Democratic: 72,196
Republican: 69,377
Other: 46,427Data from Ralston and TargetEarly
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 21, 2024
With its population of just over three million people, Nevada accounts for six votes in the electoral college system, meaning it is unlikely to sway the election one way or the other.
Last month, CBS reporter Adrianna Diaz hit the road in Nevada, only to find that she could not find supporters of Kamala Harris.
“What was really incredible is in every single restaurant, the people willing to talk to us, we could only find one Harris supporter in every restaurant, and we left no stone unturned,” she explained after her visit.
However, the state has not been won by a Republican presidential candidate since George W. Bush in 2004, suggesting that a Trump victory or even just a close race could point to his claiming an electoral college victory regardless.
According to the latest RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump holds a 0.9 percent lead over Harris in the state of Nevada, well within the margin of error.
