A new nationwide survey suggests most Americans don’t see sports prediction markets as investing tools, but rather as another form of gambling, with growing concern about how these platforms operate and who might be at risk.
The poll, commissioned by Gambling Is Not Investing and carried out by Morning Consult, gathered responses from 15,029 adults across the United States between March 17 and March 22, 2026. It paints a detailed picture of how people understand prediction markets and what kind of oversight they expect.
Even though awareness is rising, relatively few people are actually using these platforms. A large majority, 83%, said they hadn’t bought or traded contracts on a prediction market in the past year, compared with 73% who hadn’t placed a sportsbook wager and 65% who hadn’t traded traditional financial assets like stocks or ETFs.
Still, opinions are firm as 81% of respondents said sports-related activity on prediction markets amounts to gambling. When platforms describe these contracts as “investments,” most people don’t appear to be convinced—70% still classify the activity as gambling, while only 19% see it as investing.
“This polling confirms that unabated sports gambling on prediction markets is a growing concern across America,” said Mick Mulvaney, Executive Director of Gambling Is Not Investing. “Prediction markets are trying to disguise their sports betting products as a financial investment, misleading Americans and dodging consumer safeguards are like age requirements. “Let’s face it, if it quacks like a duck, it’s sports betting.”
Gambling survey shows concerns about confusion and consumer risk over prediction markets
One of the takeaways from the survey seems to be how strongly people believe these platforms can blur the line between investing and gambling. Three-quarters of respondents said consumers could easily misunderstand prediction markets as legitimate investments.
The language used by platforms appears to play a big role. Terms like “event contracts,” “swaps,” and “futures” make it harder, especially for younger users, to recognize the risks, according to 73% of those surveyed.
This has become more visible in recent disputes involving platforms like Kalshi, which has promoted sports-related event contracts tied to outcomes such as March Madness games. Critics, including the Gambling Is Not Investing coalition, argue these offerings closely resemble traditional sports betting despite being framed as financial products.
When it comes to risk, Americans tend to see prediction markets as just as dangerous, or even more so than regulated sportsbooks. More than half said the risk level is about the same, while 27% believe it’s higher.
Confidence in safeguards is also shaky. Nearly half of respondents said they aren’t confident these platforms provide protections comparable to licensed sportsbooks. Skepticism extends to market fairness as well, with many doubting whether insider trading can be effectively prevented.
There’s also strong concern about potential abuse. Seven in ten Americans said they worry that people with inside knowledge could profit unfairly, and a similar share expressed concern about younger users gaining access.
Support for tighter regulation is overwhelming. Large majorities said prediction markets should follow the same rules as sportsbooks, including taxes, licensing, age restrictions, and responsible gambling measures. Many also questioned whether current federal oversight is sufficient, pointing to uncertainty around the role of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
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