Kalshi and Polymarket have seen a sharp rise in interest in a particular contract surrounding the US government’s shutdown.
As the Republicans don’t have the votes to push through their healthcare agenda, which would see prices soar for everyday Americans, the government can’t agree and has decided to shut it down until someone makes the first move.
With interest around the political situation at an all-time high, it’s no wonder that prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have come out swinging with wagers based on the shutdown.
Kalshi has over $4 million in volume on government shutdown
Both prediction markets currently have a wager on how long the shutdown will last, as the Trump administration has hinted that it’s unlikely for furloughed workers to receive back pay.
BREAKING: The US government shutdown is now forecasted to last nearly 24 days
This would make it the second longest in history pic.twitter.com/3lrVYYTwJd
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) October 8, 2025
On Kalshi, the current volume at the time of writing is at $4,133,683 million, with wagers sitting at:
- 61% for more than 20 days
- 49% for more than 25 days
- 39% for more than 30 days
As of right now, it’s at eight days, with the longest US shutdown being during Trump’s first presidency, at 35 days. This was over the lack of funding for the border wall that Mexico was originally said to be paying for. Before this, it was in 1996, which lasted 21 days under Bill Clinton, when balancing the budget caused a schism.
Polymarket’s $5 million speculation thinks shutdown is going to last longer
Over on Polymarket, the question is “When will the Government shutdown end?”, rather than how long it’s expected to last. Its total volume is sitting at $5,363,145. Currently active are:
- October 6-9 (today), with $908,146 volume behind it at less than 1%
- October 10-14, with $356,486 volume behind it at 15%
- October 15 or later, with $2,041,562 volume, at 85%
BREAKING: The U.S. Government is still shut down.
83% chance it doesn’t end anytime soon.https://t.co/TCIdcHRfg3
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 8, 2025
Polymarket is also running a similar wager to Kalshi, in regards to how many days the government will remain shut down. As of right now, 10 to 29 days lead, with 71%. This particular wager has a volume of $1,237,281.
